Two days ago, the European Parliament approved the framework of the EU-US Turnberry Agreement. US tariffs on EU goods are set at 15%. The EU drops duties on most US industrial products. It was framed as a win.
Within the same week, the White House launched fresh Section 301 investigations targeting the EU, and legal uncertainty from February’s Supreme Court ruling continues to hang over the entire structure. The deal expires in March 2028 unless both sides renew it.
For a European hardware founder watching this unfold, the temptation is to wait for the dust to settle. I want to make the case that waiting is the wrong move — and explain why.
The chaos is not the obstacle. Your competitors think it is.
Every Dutch hardware scale-up eyeing the US market right now is looking at the same tariff headlines and making the same calculation: too uncertain, let’s hold. That consensus is exactly why the window is open.
US buyers — distributors, retailers, B2B procurement teams — are actively looking for new suppliers right now. Rising prices and uncertainty have prompted US buyers to reassess their supplier base, and European companies that move decisively can fill that gap before their competitors do. The companies who plant the flag during uncertainty are the ones who own the shelf space and the relationships when things stabilise. That has always been true of US market entry. Tariff turbulence makes it more true, not less.
What the Turnberry Agreement actually means for your product
The 15% tariff ceiling matters — but it is not the number most founders should be focused on. The more important questions are:
Where does your product sit in the tariff structure? EVs, batteries, battery parts, critical materials and certain electronics face the most severe rate exposure, while many other hardware categories sit at significantly lower effective rates. If you are in e-mobility or power sports, your supply chain assumptions from 18 months ago are wrong and need rebuilding before you price a single US deal.
How is your product classified? Tariff classification disputes are rampant right now. Companies that understood their HS codes precisely and structured their supply chain accordingly are landing at 10–15% total duty exposure. Companies that didn’t are landing at 25–40%. This is not a customs formality — it is a margin decision.
Where are you manufacturing? New Section 301 investigations could pave the way for additional tariffs affecting electronics, automotive and EV components, batteries, and machinery. If your contract manufacturer is in China or Southeast Asia, your US price competitiveness could shift materially within 12 months. You need to model that scenario before you commit to a US channel strategy, not after.
The questions I hear most often from founders right now
Should I wait until the trade deal is ratified properly?
No. The Turnberry Agreement’s first trilogue meeting is April 13. Full ratification will take months and the sunset clause runs to 2028. You will not get more certainty than 15% plus a two-year runway. For most hardware categories, that is workable.
Do I need a US entity before I can test the market?
Not for initial distribution partnerships or pilot sales. But you do need to understand the import mechanics, customs bond requirements, and how tariff liability flows between you and your US distributor. Getting that wrong costs real money and damages the relationship before it starts.
Is the US market actually worth it given all this?
That depends entirely on your product, your margins, and your timing. The US remains the world’s largest single consumer hardware market by a wide margin. The founders I see hesitate longest on this question are usually the ones whose product-market fit in the US is the least validated — and the tariff debate is giving them permission to delay a harder conversation.
What to do in the next 90 days
If you are a hardware founder with a product that has proven European traction and a US market hypothesis you have not yet tested, this is what I would focus on:
Get your tariff exposure mapped precisely. Not a general estimate — the actual HS classification, country of origin, and applicable rate for your specific product in its current configuration. This takes a week and will immediately clarify whether your US pricing model is viable.
Talk to two or three potential US distribution partners. Not to close a deal — to test your positioning, understand shelf economics, and hear directly what US buyers are concerned about. Most European founders are shocked by how different the US distribution conversation is from the European one.
Model two scenarios. One where the Turnberry Agreement holds at 15%. One where the Section 301 investigations lead to additional duties in late 2026. Your US go-to-market strategy should be viable under both. If it is only viable under the optimistic scenario, you do not have a strategy — you have a bet.
The opportunity most Dutch founders are missing
The tariff environment is reshaping US supply chains faster than most people realise. US distributors, retailers and OEM buyers who have historically sourced from Asia are actively reassessing their supplier base. European hardware — particularly from the Netherlands, Germany, and Scandinavia — carries enormous credibility in the US market for quality, engineering rigour, and reliability.
The companies that move strategically during this disruption, rather than waiting for certainty, are the ones that secure the long-term relationships.
The chaos is the opportunity. The question is whether you are prepared to move through it methodically.
I advise European hardware founders on US market entry and cross-Atlantic commercial strategy. If you are working through this decision and want a direct, experienced perspective — not a slide deck — you can reach me here.